2026 NCAA tournament picks, odds: 4 March Madness bets we like right now

Matt Russell and Corbie Craig Mon, March 16, 2026 at 2:25 AM UTC

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The 2026 NCAA tournament and March Madness are here and the bracket has finally been released, which means that we also have odds out for every first-round game at sportsbooks.

While there is plenty of time to fill out your bracket and make your picks in the Yahoo Sports Bracket Mayhem game, there is no time like the present to get a wager you like in early. After all, the odds are already on the move.

Our college basketball handicappers — Matt Russell and Corbie Craig — are here with a couple of early wagers they like after the brackets have been released.

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Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Early 2026 March Madness bets we like

First Four: (16) Prairie View A&M vs. (16) Lehigh (-2.5, 145.5)

Russell: Things are never easy in the SWAC, but we got home with Prairie View on Saturday after the Panthers took a big lead, and held on with a ticket to the Big Dance looming. To review, the premise there was that a change in lineup composition and roles for Prairie View have made it not only better than an 8-seed in the SWAC, but a team better than its current rating.

Despite burning through the SWAC tournament — even winning Saturday’s game with Dontae Horne shooting just 6-for-20 — the Panthers’ rating has somehow gotten worse relative to Lehigh, as the Mountain Hawks appear to be getting significant credit for three home wins over the course of a week because of the singular excellence of Nasir Whitlock.

Both teams have a star that could make Wednesday night in Dayton a thoroughly entertaining watch, but each are just as likely as the other to go off, and their teams should be rated as equals on a neutral court — but they’re not.

Bet: Prairie View A&M +2.5

First round: (11) VCU vs. (6) North Carolina (-2.5, 154.5)

Russell: Three weeks ago, North Carolina lost Caleb Wilson and the market reacted, dropping the Tar Heels’ power rating to a point where a program so rarely underrated actually was just that. North Carolina covered all-but-one game down the stretch.

Then, just as Wilson was expected to come back, he broke his hand dunking in practice, and while the Tar Heels’ backdoored a big underdog spread against Duke days later, North Carolina looked a mess in the ACC tournament against Clemson.

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Nevertheless, this line takes the Heels’ overall metrics for the season, and builds a point spread from that, making them 3-point favorites over VCU. The current edition of North Carolina is not as good as the one reflected in that rating, and now they take on VCU, who are, frankly, a pain in the backside to play, and have lost once since Jan.10.

Bet: VCU +3

First round: (12) Northern Iowa vs. (5) St. John’s (-11.5, 132.5)

Russell: The Johnnies had Madison Square Garden rocking on Saturday evening, jumping on UConn early and taking the Big East trilogy, and while the committee didn’t seem to notice, with a line this high, the market’s never been hotter on St. John’s.

Despite being the 7-seed in the Missouri Valley, the market loved Northern Iowa, pricing the Panthers surprisingly short in the conference futures before a tournament where it needed to win four games in four nights (an Arch Madness first), and making the Panthers the favorite against everyone in their path.

Spoiler: They won all of those games, and yet haven’t been boosted up to where they should be, which is an underdog in the single digits.

With a key piece (Tristan Smith) back in the fold after missing a month, Northern Iowa is going to cause problems for a Johnnies team that — while physically dominant — can go cold from outside at times.

Bet: Northern Iowa +11.5

No. 13 Cal Baptist vs. No. 4 Kansas (-14.5, 136.5)

Craig: Cal Baptist has been one of the more entertaining mid-majors this season, largely thanks to star point guard Dominique Daniels Jr., who has posted some video-game numbers all year, including a 47-point explosion in conference play. The Lancers’ offense often runs entirely through his ability to create off the dribble. The problem in this matchup is the physical gap.

Kansas can throw multiple long, switchable guards at Daniels Jr., starting with Melvin Council Jr., which makes life much harder in the pick-and-roll game that Cal Baptist relies on. When you combine that with Kansas’ size advantage across the rest of the floor, it becomes difficult to see the Lancers generating efficient looks consistently.

After a disappointing showing in the Big 12 tournament, Kansas also feels like a team in need of a reset. First-round tournament games often become statement spots for power programs looking to regain rhythm, and this sets up as a potential get-right opportunity. If Daniels Jr. gets bottled up even moderately, Cal Baptist’s offense doesn’t have many secondary paths. With Kansas motivated and possessing the defensive personnel to neutralize the Lancers’ engine, I’m comfortable laying the points here.

Pick: Kansas -14.5

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Source: “AOL Sports”