Pfizer's New Weight-Loss Data Just Gave Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Investors Something to Worry About

James Brumley, The Motley FoolFri, June 12, 2026 at 4:52 PM UTC

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Key Points -

Pfizer aims to enter the weight loss drug market, and one platform should be the workhorse of this effort.

That workhorse, called berobenatide, is performing as well as the company's been hoping.

It could prove very marketable despite Eli Lilly's and Novo Nordisk's commanding lead in this race.

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Pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are still the two titans of the weight loss drug market, to be sure. Lilly sold $13.5 billion worth of GLP-1-based Zepbound last year, while Novo reported revenue of more than $30 billion (U.S.) from its anti-obesity drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, with its weight loss arm experiencing year-over-year sales growth of more than 26%.

As is so often the case, though, would-be competitors aren't simply letting market leaders have unfettered access to a market that Morgan Stanley now believes will grow to a stunning $150 billion per year by 2035.

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Drugmaker Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is throwing its hat into the ring as well, recently offering a developmental update that should concern Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and the shareholders of this weight-loss drug duopoly. Let's see what this could mean for all three companies.

Less is more

It's called berobenatide. In many ways, it's like the aforementioned Wegovy and Zepbound, as it leverages the GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) receptor pathway to induce weight loss. And it's administered by subcutaneous injection.

There is one big way Pfizer's anti-obesity drug berobenatide -- also known as PF-08653944 -- differs from Wegovy, Ozempic, and Zepbound, though. That is, whereas Lilly's and Novo's treatments are injected weekly, Pfizer's GLP-1 receptor agonist requires only a monthly injection to achieve comparable weight-loss results.

A person is administering their own drug injection.

Image source: Getty Images.

That's what the developmental update, unveiled recently at the 86th Scientific Sessions of the American Diabetes Association, suggests, anyway. As the company's corresponding press release explains, the drug's phase 2b trials successfully "highlight the potential for monthly delivery in a patient-friendly presentation with a very low 0.5 mL injection volume that provides convenience and scalability advantages" for patients with or without type 2 diabetes. It's also about as well tolerated as alternatives.

There are some measurable trade-offs, of course. While this particular study showed a typical weight loss of 15.9% at the 32-week mark, patients might do slightly better with Novo Nordisk's or Eli Lilly's GLP-1 options as part of a clinically managed or carefully followed treatment regimen.

However, given that its average weight loss reflects a wide range of inputs that may or may not be affected by deviations from a dosing or diet regimen, some patients could conceivably achieve better personal results. Some observers also argue that berobenatide may produce better net weight loss in the long run simply because it's easier to stick to its corresponding weight-loss plan.

The trial's results also affirm the idea that this drug may be effective at maintaining a lower weight once a user's weight-loss goal has been met.

The rest of the story is even more compelling

It's an obvious win for Pfizer. But even a late-phase 2b win for a single drug in its R&D pipeline isn't exactly game-changing for the company. There's still phase 3 testing to be done, which is not only time-consuming, but puts previous-stage results to the test on a wider scale. Veteran investors know all too well that the FDA can often spot something it doesn't like late in a drug's development that it didn't notice before.

Just understand that this same anti-obesity treatment -- berobenatide -- isn't just in one single mid-stage trial right now. It's currently undergoing a handful of similar trials as a weight-loss drug and a type 2 diabetes treatment, some of which are phase 3 trials -- the final stage before seeking regulatory approval. The market's already familiar with this drug and its safety profile. The recent update of its efficacy as a once-monthly, low-dose injection simply bolsters the overall optimism surrounding this drug, ultimately acquired with Pfizer's 2025 acquisition of drugmaker Metsera.

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In a similar vein, Pfizer's update on phase 2b testing of low monthly doses of berobenatide gives the company another chance to tout that it actually has 10 different trials of this drug in or entering phase 3 by the end of this year. Moreover, it's got more than 20 anti-obesity treatments currently in the works at various stages of development.

Connect the dots. Pfizer is positioning to compete with Lilly and Novo. And it will be able to do so, even if only a handful of these trials meet their phase 3 targets.

Much to think about, and far too much to simply ignore

Just keep your expectations in check. Multiple trials means multiple launches of the drug, each with a narrowly range of approved uses. Pfizer's obesity business will only build slowly and won't begin making major contributions to the top and bottom lines for at least a few years.

As CEO Albert Bourla commented in the company's recent Q1 earnings conference call, "Starting in 2029, we will enter a five-year period of high single-digit revenue CAGR," with much of its growth from that point on being driven by recent acquisitions like Matsera. The three years between now and then, however, are going to remain mostly unimpressive as the company continues to struggle with the sharp wind-down of its once-red-hot COVID-19 drug business.

The market has a funny way of predicting and reflecting those predictions in stock prices -- well in advance, though.

Whatever the case, even what's just moderately bullish for Pfizer is more bearish for Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Pfizer is introducing competition to the weight-loss drug market, which is already seeing slowing growth. If nothing else, the eventual launch of berobenatide will further erode the already-waning pricing power of Wegovy, Ozempic, and Zepbound. And Pfizer isn't the only outfit working on an alternative anti-obesity drug either.

Given that Lilly and Novo shares have been priced at a premium largely on the potential of their weight-loss drugs, Pfizer's update is an important reminder that nothing lasts forever. Shareholders of either company will most definitely want to keep close tabs on the ongoing development of berobenatide. It's a brewing problem, to be sure.

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James Brumley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Eli Lilly and Pfizer. The Motley Fool recommends Novo Nordisk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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