Super El NiƱo? Forecasters announce major climate shift
Super El NiƱo? Forecasters announce major climate shift
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY Thu, April 9, 2026 at 3:27 PM UTC
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Federal scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced a long-anticipated shift in a powerful global climate pattern on Thursday, April 9, as worry grows about global heat patterns.
NOAA says the La NiƱa climate pattern has officially come to an end, and that an El NiƱo is expected to develop later this year. This has major implications for weather worldwide, and could impact the hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Some computer models that scientists use to forecast climate patterns said that the oncoming El NiƱo could be unusually strong, and have dubbed it a potential "Super El NiƱo," though federal scientists don't use that term.
El NiƱo, a natural warming of Pacific Ocean water that affects weather around the world, often leads to some of the hottest years on record, such as the record-breaking worldwide average temperature in 2024. The prospect of a strong El NiƱo has rattled forecasters, who fear an unprecedented wave of global heat into 2027.
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In the meantime, the planet is in an intermediate stage of the cycle, known as "ENSO-neutral."
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La NiƱa comes to an end
According to NOAA, the just-ended La NiƱa started in December 2024, when Pacific Ocean water temperatures reached the La NiƱa threshold.
This La NiƱa shifted rainfall patterns, which included increasing dryness in the southern U.S. It also slightly cooled global temperatures, when compared with El NiƱo years, without affecting longāterm global warming. La NiƱa also favored a more active Atlantic hurricane pattern and colder winters across portions of the northern U.S.
Recent sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean indicate that La NinĢa is over, and El NinĢo is expected later this year.What is El NiƱo?
El NiƱo is a natural climate pattern in which surface sea water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.
Its name means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El NiƱo was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El NinĢo ā Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La NinĢa is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.
The strong El NiƱo in the Pacific Ocean in 2016 is shown in this satellite image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service.'Super' El NiƱo?
Although thereās no formal NOAA El NiƱo category called "Super," the term is often used when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are up to 2 degrees (Celsius) above average for several months ā similar to what happened during the El NiƱos of 1997ā98 or 2015ā16.
"Right now, there's about a 15% chance of a Super El NiƱo by the end of this hurricane season [Nov. 30], which we've only seen once since the year 2000," said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva, in an email to USA TODAY.
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Although a "Super El NiƱo" is possible, federal scientists from the Climate Prediction Center are more cautious:
"The possible outcomes range from ENSO-neutral to a very strong El NiƱo during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter," NOAA scientists said in a report released Thursday, April 9. "The possibility of a very strong El NiƱo largely depends on the continuation of westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer months, which is not assured."
In the report, NOAA scientists said that by May-July 2026, El NiƱo is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.
Spring predictability barrier
A known weakness in climate forecasting, the so-called "spring predictability barrier" occurs when El NiƱo and La NiƱa forecasts made in spring (roughly MarchāMay) are significantly less reliable than forecasts made during other times of year, according to NOAA.
"During this time of year, forecast models can be untrustworthy when predicting timing and strength," said AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok in an email to USA TODAY. "So we still need to be cautious. But it looks more and more that an El NiƱo is coming."
Typical influence of El NiƱo on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.How does El NiƱo influence hurricanes?
El NiƱo can have a huge impact on the severity of the hurricane season in both the Atlantic and the Pacific: It tends to reduce activity in the Atlantic and boost activity in the Pacific.
"Typically, El NiƱo leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific, which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic," said associate scientist Andy Hazelton of the University of Miami in an email to USA TODAY. "This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf."
Conversely, "El NiƱo years are typically associated with more activity in the eastern Pacific," said NOAA's lead hurricane seasonal forecaster Matthew Rosencrans.
Winter impacts of El NinĢo
During an El NinĢo winter, the southern third of the United States typically experiences wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern third sees enhanced chances of below-normal precipitation, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Additionally, Pastelok said that a strong to super El NinĢo can bring big storms to the West Coast, and a strong southern storm track, rich with moisture from the Gulf and Atlantic, to produce powerful East Coast storms.
Why do we care about El NiƱo?
The ENSO cycle is the primary factor government scientists consider when announcing their winter weather forecast because it mainly influences our weather in the colder months. Except for its impact on hurricanes, El NiƱo doesnāt have a strong summer climate impact for most of the country, NOAA said.
And as the World Meteorological Organization says, "seasonal forecasts for El NiƱo and La NiƱa help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management."
"They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, in a statement.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Super El NiƱo? NOAA announces major climate shift
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